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Vancouver IslandSwingRural
Mid Island-Pacific Rim
Incumbent: Josie Osborne · BC NDP
Projected winner
Projection as of Oct 11, 2026. Nominations closed Oct 3, 2026.
BC NDP73% chance of winning
- BC NDP · Josie Osborne (incumbent)73%
- Conservative · Joshua Dahling27%
- BC Green · Gracie MacDonald
2024 result
- Josie Osborneelected14,04248.7%
- Adam Hayduk11,36639.5%
- Ross Reid3,40211.8%
- Margin
- 9.3%
- Tier
- Swing
- Turnout
- 60.3%
- Registered
- 47,816
2020 result
Estimated. 2020 was fought on the previous 87-district map, so these votes are transposed onto today's boundaries using Elections BC's voting-area conversion table. A notional baseline, not a count.
- Josie Osborneelected13,49056.5%
- Evan Jolicoeur4,66019.5%
- Helen Poon4,05817.0%
- Graham Hughes5822.4%
- Robert Alexander Clarke3531.5%
- Ronna-Rae Leonard1410.6%
- Adam Walker1050.4%
- Doug Routley870.4%
- Michelle Stilwell870.4%
- Brennan Day850.4%
- Gillian Anderson570.2%
- Chris Istace570.2%
- Rob Lyon420.2%
- Duck (don) Paterson340.1%
- Don Purdey120.1%
- Rob Douglas60.0%
- Sonia Furstenau60.0%
- Michele Babchuk40.0%
- John St John40.0%
- Tanya Kaul20.0%
- Norm Facey10.0%
- Alexandra Morton10.0%
- John Twigg10.0%
Who actually voted
2024 turnout by age band. Elections BC publishes this per district; Elections Canada does not, so federal ridings have no equivalent.
- 18-2448%
- 25-3444%
- 35-4452%
- 45-5456%
- 55-6464%
- 65-7473%
- 75+72%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population, published by Statistics Canada directly on these boundaries — nothing here is interpolated from a different map. Ranks are against all 93 districts.
- Median household income
- $70,00083 of 93
- Average rent
- $1,07982 of 93
- Renters
- 24.5%57 of 93
- Bachelor's or higher
- 16.1%79 of 93
- Median age
- 48.816 of 93
- Over 65
- 25.6%19 of 93
- Immigrants
- 10.7%79 of 93
- Visible minority
- 4.4%87 of 93
- Indigenous identity
- 14.4%12 of 93
- Unemployment
- 9.3%30 of 93
Closest races in Vancouver Island
The seats most likely to move with this one.