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Vancouver IslandSafeUrban
Nanaimo-Gabriola Island
Incumbent: Sheila Malcolmson · BC NDP
Projected winner
Projection as of Oct 11, 2026. Nominations closed Oct 3, 2026.
BC NDP98% chance of winning
- BC NDP · Sheila Malcolmson (incumbent)98%
- Conservative · Mark MacDonald2%
- BC Green · Anna Mary McKenzie
2024 result
- Sheila Malcolmsonelected14,66352.8%
- Dale Parker9,63334.6%
- Shirley Lambrecht3,50212.6%
- Margin
- 18.1%
- Tier
- Lean
- Turnout
- 59.8%
- Registered
- 46,454
2020 result
Estimated. 2020 was fought on the previous 87-district map, so these votes are transposed onto today's boundaries using Elections BC's voting-area conversion table. A notional baseline, not a count.
- Sheila Malcolmsonelected6,97027.4%
- Doug Routley6,24224.6%
- Chris Istace3,80315.0%
- Lia Marie Constance Versaevel3,02311.9%
- Kathleen Jones2,75410.8%
- Duck (don) Paterson2,5219.9%
- Adam Walker350.1%
- Michelle Stilwell260.1%
- Rob Lyon110.0%
- Don Purdey30.0%
- John St John10.0%
Who actually voted
2024 turnout by age band. Elections BC publishes this per district; Elections Canada does not, so federal ridings have no equivalent.
- 18-2452%
- 25-3446%
- 35-4454%
- 45-5458%
- 55-6463%
- 65-7472%
- 75+70%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population, published by Statistics Canada directly on these boundaries — nothing here is interpolated from a different map. Ranks are against all 93 districts.
- Median household income
- $68,00086 of 93
- Average rent
- $1,23470 of 93
- Renters
- 36.5%28 of 93
- Bachelor's or higher
- 22.3%52 of 93
- Median age
- 44.828 of 93
- Over 65
- 23.1%25 of 93
- Immigrants
- 13.8%67 of 93
- Visible minority
- 10.8%65 of 93
- Indigenous identity
- 10.5%18 of 93
- Unemployment
- 8.4%50 of 93
Closest races in Vancouver Island
The seats most likely to move with this one.