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Vancouver IslandSafeRural
Saanich North and the Islands
MLA at dissolution: Rob Botterell · BC Green · not running here
Projected winner
Projection as of Oct 11, 2026. Nominations closed Oct 3, 2026.
BC Green91% chance of winning
- BC Green · Emily Lowan91%
- Conservative · Ryan Windsor8%
- BC NDP · Kala Bryson2%
- CentreBC · Richard Smith
2024 result
- Rob Botterellelected12,30836.1%
- Sarah Riddell10,95832.2%
- David Busch10,14529.8%
- Amy Haysom6351.9%
- Margin
- 4.0%
- Tier
- Toss-up
- Turnout
- 68.9%
- Registered
- 49,437
2020 result
Estimated. 2020 was fought on the previous 87-district map, so these votes are transposed onto today's boundaries using Elections BC's voting-area conversion table. A notional baseline, not a count.
- Adam Olsenelected16,74851.1%
- Zeb King9,27828.3%
- Stephen P Roberts6,07218.5%
- Murray Rankin1840.6%
- Lana Popham1790.6%
- Nicole Duncan900.3%
- Roxanne Helme810.3%
- Kate O'Connor800.2%
- Rishi Sharma770.2%
- Florian Castle20.0%
Who actually voted
2024 turnout by age band. Elections BC publishes this per district; Elections Canada does not, so federal ridings have no equivalent.
- 18-2459%
- 25-3449%
- 35-4458%
- 45-5463%
- 55-6471%
- 65-7479%
- 75+77%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population, published by Statistics Canada directly on these boundaries — nothing here is interpolated from a different map. Ranks are against all 93 districts.
- Median household income
- $85,00052 of 93
- Average rent
- $1,35653 of 93
- Renters
- 17.9%85 of 93
- Bachelor's or higher
- 31.6%31 of 93
- Median age
- 57.23 of 93
- Over 65
- 36.3%2 of 93
- Immigrants
- 19.1%53 of 93
- Visible minority
- 6.5%76 of 93
- Indigenous identity
- 5.9%39 of 93
- Unemployment
- 5.7%92 of 93
Closest races in Vancouver Island
The seats most likely to move with this one.