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Vancouver IslandSafeUrban
Victoria-Swan Lake
Incumbent: Nina Krieger · BC NDP
Projected winner
Projection as of Oct 11, 2026. Nominations closed Oct 3, 2026.
BC NDP>99% chance of winning
- BC NDP · Nina Krieger (incumbent)>99%
- Conservative · Tim Taylor
- BC Green · Carolyn Howe
2024 result
- Nina Kriegerelected14,27356.0%
- Christina Winter5,89923.2%
- Tim Taylor5,14620.2%
- Robert Crooks1560.6%
- Margin
- 32.9%
- Tier
- Safe
- Turnout
- 62.5%
- Registered
- 40,752
2020 result
Estimated. 2020 was fought on the previous 87-district map, so these votes are transposed onto today's boundaries using Elections BC's voting-area conversion table. A notional baseline, not a count.
- Rob Flemingelected14,14159.4%
- Annemieke Holthuis6,61527.8%
- David Somerville2,72011.4%
- Jenn Smith2401.0%
- Walt Parsons1070.5%
Who actually voted
2024 turnout by age band. Elections BC publishes this per district; Elections Canada does not, so federal ridings have no equivalent.
- 18-2459%
- 25-3454%
- 35-4461%
- 45-5463%
- 55-6465%
- 65-7471%
- 75+68%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population, published by Statistics Canada directly on these boundaries — nothing here is interpolated from a different map. Ranks are against all 93 districts.
- Median household income
- $75,50073 of 93
- Average rent
- $1,35654 of 93
- Renters
- 45.7%13 of 93
- Bachelor's or higher
- 34.3%26 of 93
- Median age
- 40.857 of 93
- Over 65
- 19.7%44 of 93
- Immigrants
- 19.9%52 of 93
- Visible minority
- 21.7%48 of 93
- Indigenous identity
- 5.2%43 of 93
- Unemployment
- 7.2%78 of 93
Closest races in Vancouver Island
The seats most likely to move with this one.