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Vancouver IslandSwingRural
Cowichan Valley
Incumbent: Debra Toporowski · BC NDP
Projected winner
Projection as of Oct 11, 2026. Nominations closed Oct 3, 2026.
Conservative67% chance of winning
- Conservative · Bert Chen67%
- BC NDP · Debra Toporowski (incumbent)33%
- BC Green · Justin Douglas
2024 result
- Debra Toporowskielected11,79540.5%
- John Koury10,94637.6%
- Cammy Lockwood5,77319.8%
- Eden Haythornthwaite3411.2%
- Jon Coleman2630.9%
- Margin
- 2.9%
- Tier
- Toss-up
- Turnout
- 63.4%
- Registered
- 45,901
2020 result
Estimated. 2020 was fought on the previous 87-district map, so these votes are transposed onto today's boundaries using Elections BC's voting-area conversion table. A notional baseline, not a count.
- Sonia Furstenau9,29235.1%
- Rob Douglaselected8,78033.2%
- Tanya Kaul3,35112.7%
- Doug Routley2,5319.6%
- Chris Istace1,4855.6%
- Duck (don) Paterson1,0403.9%
Who actually voted
2024 turnout by age band. Elections BC publishes this per district; Elections Canada does not, so federal ridings have no equivalent.
- 18-2451%
- 25-3445%
- 35-4455%
- 45-5459%
- 55-6467%
- 65-7475%
- 75+73%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population, published by Statistics Canada directly on these boundaries — nothing here is interpolated from a different map. Ranks are against all 93 districts.
- Median household income
- $74,50077 of 93
- Average rent
- $1,17775 of 93
- Renters
- 23.1%66 of 93
- Bachelor's or higher
- 16.5%75 of 93
- Median age
- 50.411 of 93
- Over 65
- 27.5%10 of 93
- Immigrants
- 11.9%74 of 93
- Visible minority
- 6.5%75 of 93
- Indigenous identity
- 14.4%11 of 93
- Unemployment
- 7.7%67 of 93
Closest races in Vancouver Island
The seats most likely to move with this one.