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Vancouver IslandLeanRural
Juan de Fuca-Malahat
Incumbent: Dana Lajeunesse · BC NDP
Projected winner
Projection as of Oct 11, 2026. Nominations closed Oct 3, 2026.
Conservative80% chance of winning
- Conservative · Mike Hicks80%
- BC NDP · Dana Lajeunesse (incumbent)20%
- BC Green · David Evans<1%
- OneBC · Shane Friesen
2024 result
- Dana Lajeunesseelected9,30838.8%
- Marina Sapozhnikov9,16738.2%
- David Evans5,52223.0%
- Margin
- 0.6%
- Tier
- Toss-up
- Turnout
- 64.7%
- Registered
- 37,078
2020 result
Estimated. 2020 was fought on the previous 87-district map, so these votes are transposed onto today's boundaries using Elections BC's voting-area conversion table. A notional baseline, not a count.
- John Horganelected6,58131.6%
- Sonia Furstenau3,76018.1%
- Rob Douglas3,08814.8%
- Mitzi Dean1,7018.2%
- Gord Baird1,6598.0%
- Kelly Darwin1,3866.7%
- Tanya Kaul1,2536.0%
- Andy MacKinnon7523.6%
- RJ Senko4592.2%
- Grace Lore460.2%
- Tyson Riel Strandlund440.2%
- Desta McPherson320.1%
- Jenn Neilson260.1%
- Karen Bill130.1%
- Jordan Reichert10.0%
Who actually voted
2024 turnout by age band. Elections BC publishes this per district; Elections Canada does not, so federal ridings have no equivalent.
- 18-2453%
- 25-3449%
- 35-4458%
- 45-5462%
- 55-6468%
- 65-7476%
- 75+74%
District at a glance
2021 Census of Population, published by Statistics Canada directly on these boundaries — nothing here is interpolated from a different map. Ranks are against all 93 districts.
- Median household income
- $93,00030 of 93
- Average rent
- $1,37252 of 93
- Renters
- 15.4%92 of 93
- Bachelor's or higher
- 20.2%60 of 93
- Median age
- 48.418 of 93
- Over 65
- 23.6%24 of 93
- Immigrants
- 12.7%71 of 93
- Visible minority
- 4.4%88 of 93
- Indigenous identity
- 7.3%27 of 93
- Unemployment
- 6.5%85 of 93
Closest races in Vancouver Island
The seats most likely to move with this one.