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Western Newfoundland–Northern PeninsulaSwingRural

St. Barbe–L'Anse aux Meadows

MHA: Andrea Barbour · Progressive Conservative

Projected winner

If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 3, 2026; the next election is set for Tuesday, October 9, 2029, or Monday, November 26 if it would overlap the federal election.

Progressive Conservative72% chance of winning

  • Progressive Conservative · 42.9% projected vote72%
  • Liberal · 38.8% projected vote28%

2025 result

  • Andrea Barbour · Progressive Conservativeelected2,59655.2%
  • Krista Lynn Howell · Liberal2,00142.5%
  • Beth Ryan · NL NDP1062.3%
Margin
12.7%
Tier
Lean
Turnout
57.4%
Registered
8,201

2021 result

The pandemic election: in-person voting on polling day was cancelled the day before, so apart from the advance polls the vote was by mail, and the results were announced on March 27, 2021.

  • Krista Lynn Howell · Liberalelected2,37551.2%
  • Sheila Fitzgerald · Progressive Conservative2,15946.5%
  • Ford Mitchelmore · Independent701.5%
  • John McClusky · NL NDP380.8%

2019 result

  • Christopher Mitchelmore · Liberalelected3,47461.2%
  • Sheila Fitzgerald · Progressive Conservative2,03635.9%
  • Ford Mitchelmore · Independent1703.0%

District at a glance

2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada publishes no profile on Newfoundland and Labrador's provincial districts, so these are built from the dissemination areas inside each one, an area crossed by a boundary divided by where its people live: counts are weighted sums, medians are estimates. Ranks are against all 40 districts.

Median household income
$68,00020 of 40
Average rent
$75029 of 40
Renters
10.0%38 of 40
Bachelor's or higher
7.6%29 of 40
Median age
55.85 of 40
Over 65
30.8%8 of 40
Visible minority
1.5%16 of 40
Immigrants
1.1%26 of 40
Indigenous identity
9.8%11 of 40
Unemployment
30.0%2 of 40

Closest races, Western Newfoundland–Northern Peninsula

The seats most likely to move with this one.

Results: Elections Newfoundland and Labrador. Boundaries: contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Newfoundland and Labrador. Census profile: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census of Population, combined into districts by NorthernVibe.