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Southwest/SouthSafeRural
Borderland
MLA: Josh Guenter · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 2, 2026; the next election is set for Tuesday, October 5, 2027.
Progressive Conservative>99% chance of winning
- Progressive Conservative · 61.9% projected vote>99%
2023 result
- Josh Guenter · Progressive Conservativeelected4,47972.7%
- Rick Derksen · Manitoba NDP92114.9%
- Loren Braul · Liberal76412.4%
- Margin
- 57.7%
- Tier
- Safe
- Turnout
- 50.3%
- Registered
- 12,262
2019 result
- Josh Guenter · Progressive Conservativeelected4,88666.1%
- Loren Braul · Liberal1,22616.6%
- Cliff Graydon · Independent74010.0%
- Liz Cronk · Manitoba NDP2913.9%
- Ken Henry · Green2503.4%
Division at a glance
2021 Census of Population, from the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics' profile of each of the 57 provincial electoral divisions, which tabulates Statistics Canada's counts for each division directly: counts and medians are the census's own, not estimates. Ranks are against all 57 divisions.
- Median household income
- $78,50030 of 57
- Renters
- 12.9%52 of 57
- Bachelor's or higher
- 9.3%54 of 57
- Median age
- 30.653 of 57
- Over 65
- 10.2%53 of 57
- Visible minority
- 3.8%45 of 57
- Immigrants
- 21.8%22 of 57
- Indigenous identity
- 6.2%53 of 57
- Unemployment
- 4.9%56 of 57
Closest races, Southwest/South
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Results and boundaries: Elections Manitoba. Census profile: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics.