Turtle Mountain
MLA: Doyle Piwniuk · Progressive Conservative
Projected winner
If an election were held today. Projection as of Nov 2, 2026; the next election is set for Tuesday, October 5, 2027.
Progressive Conservative85% chance of winning
- Progressive Conservative · 46.8% projected vote85%
- Manitoba NDP · 40.2% projected vote15%
2023 result
- Doyle Piwniuk · Progressive Conservativeelected4,80655.0%
- Lorna Canada-Vanegas Mesa · Manitoba NDP1,99322.8%
- Kevin Friesen · Keystone1,50717.3%
- Ali Tarar · Liberal4254.9%
- Margin
- 32.2%
- Tier
- Safe
- Turnout
- 55.3%
- Registered
- 15,794
2019 result
- Doyle Piwniuk · Progressive Conservativeelected6,21067.5%
- David Neufeld · Green1,37214.9%
- Angie Herrera-Hildebrand · Manitoba NDP1,00310.9%
- Richard Davies · Liberal6186.7%
Division at a glance
2021 Census of Population, from the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics' profile of each of the 57 provincial electoral divisions, which tabulates Statistics Canada's counts for each division directly: counts and medians are the census's own, not estimates. Ranks are against all 57 divisions.
- Median household income
- $70,00044 of 57
- Renters
- 16.5%46 of 57
- Bachelor's or higher
- 12.4%47 of 57
- Median age
- 45.27 of 57
- Over 65
- 24.0%6 of 57
- Visible minority
- 3.7%46 of 57
- Immigrants
- 7.0%46 of 57
- Indigenous identity
- 6.3%51 of 57
- Unemployment
- 5.2%54 of 57
Statistics Canada did not complete the 2021 count on reserves in this division (Swan Lake 7), so its population and Indigenous share are undercounts.
Closest races, Southwest/South
The seats most likely to move with this one.
Results and boundaries: Elections Manitoba. Census profile: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics.